A former United States Air Force nuclear protection specialist has warned that any Iranian attempt to strike at the United Kingdom would be far more likely to involve covert activity or cyber operations than a conventional military attack on the British mainland, as tensions in the Middle East intensified following fresh US and Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent retaliatory activity across the region. (Reuters)
Gene Sticco, who has worked in security roles linked to major energy firms and has written about his experience in the industry, told the Daily Mirror that Iran’s “conventional military reach doesn’t extend to the British mainland with any reliability”, describing a large-scale strike on the UK as highly improbable. (Barnes & Noble)
However, he identified four UK locations he said could be exposed to targeting through “unconventional or cyber means”, pointing to sites connected to defence infrastructure and intelligence. “In terms of UK-based military infrastructure that could be targeted through unconventional or cyber means, the obvious ones are RAF Fairford if it’s being used for US operations, the naval facilities at Portsmouth and Devonport, and GCHQ in Cheltenham, though that last one would be a cyber target rather than a kinetic one,” he said. (MI5)
His comments came as the UK government sought to emphasise that Britain had not taken part in the initial offensive on Iran, while confirming it would support defensive activity in the region and allow the use of British bases for specific purposes linked to protection of allies and regional security. (Reuters)
In the days following the escalation, a British military base in Cyprus, RAF Akrotiri, was hit by a drone attack, prompting heightened concern about further retaliation against UK assets in the region. UK officials and allied governments described the strike as a significant moment for British forces deployed overseas, and the government said additional protective measures were being put in place. (Al Jazeera)
Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Britain was deploying additional assets, including HMS Dragon, a Type 45 destroyer, alongside helicopters with counter-drone capabilities, to help defend Cyprus and protect personnel based at Akrotiri amid a deteriorating security environment. (Reuters)
Reuters reported that British forces had intercepted drones in the region in the preceding 24 hours, including instances involving RAF aircraft operating in defensive roles as allies sought to prevent attacks on bases and partner nations. (Reuters)
Against that backdrop, Sticco argued that the greatest risk to the UK would not be a direct military strike on a British city, but rather activity that is harder to detect and disrupt. He said Iran has maintained intelligence networks across Europe for decades and warned that, if Tehran attempted something on UK soil, it would most likely involve cyber attacks on critical infrastructure, an attack on an Israeli or Jewish community target, or an attempt to strike a military or government-affiliated location. (Sky News)
RAF Fairford, in Gloucestershire, has a long runway and specialist infrastructure that has historically supported US long-range bomber deployments. Defence reporting in recent days has suggested the base could again be strategically relevant in a conflict where the United States requires European facilities capable of supporting heavy aircraft and long-distance operations. (Forces News)
The naval facilities Sticco referenced include HMNB Portsmouth, which hosts a large proportion of the Royal Navy’s surface fleet, and HMNB Devonport in Plymouth, which is one of Europe’s largest naval bases and supports a range of amphibious, research, and frontline vessels. Both are key nodes in Britain’s ability to sustain maritime operations and readiness. (Reuters)
He also highlighted GCHQ in Cheltenham, Britain’s signals intelligence and cyber agency, as a plausible focus for hostile cyber activity in any scenario where Iran sought to retaliate against UK involvement or signal its ability to reach into British systems. In the context Sticco described, the aim would be disruption rather than physical damage, with critical services and networks considered more vulnerable to interference than heavily guarded sites. (MI5)
Sticco said the UK’s terror threat level would “almost certainly be raised if it hasn’t been already”, while stressing that a large-scale conventional strike on the mainland would remain unlikely. (Sky News)
Britain’s published terrorism threat level system, overseen through established assessment processes, ranges from LOW to CRITICAL and is intended to reflect the assessed likelihood of an attack rather than certainty of a specific plot. Security agencies have repeatedly said the level is kept under constant review and can change in response to shifts in the international environment and intelligence picture. (MI5)
In his remarks, Sticco urged the public to remain informed and to follow government guidance, arguing that the UK’s domestic security services and counter-terrorism policing have extensive experience disrupting plots before they materialise, while acknowledging that no system is perfect and that a major international crisis can stretch resources. (MI5)
The warning landed as ministers faced questions about the extent of Britain’s exposure in a fast-moving confrontation involving the United States, Israel, Iran, and armed groups operating across the region. While UK policy has sought to draw a line between offensive action and defensive support, events such as the drone strike on Akrotiri have highlighted how quickly British installations abroad can become part of a wider battlefield, and how retaliatory strategies can blend physical attacks with cyber and intelligence-driven activity. (Al Jazeera)
